Strategy:

Tesla has a new Master Plan - part 3:
Each company needs a MasterPlan because it needs a compass. Let’s see how Tesla performed with the previous two:

Master Plan 1 (2006):

• Build sports car

• Use that money to build an affordable car

• Use that money to build an even more affordable car

• While doing the above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Conclusion: These were mostly achieved (regardless of the timeline)

Master Plan 2 (2016)

• Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage 

• Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments

• Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning

• Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Conclusion: mostly failed 

Master Plan 3 (2023) - the full event was under the motto “Fully sustainable earth”

• The global transition from fossil fuels (est. cost: $10 tr)

• Adding renewable power to the existing grid

• Producing more electric vehicles

• Installing heat pumps in homes and buildings

• Using high-temperature heat delivery and hydrogen for industrial applications

• Building sustainably fuel for planes & boats

Conclusions:

1. The investors were disappointed to see that no clear commitments to Tesla, and no new product announcements, and alike. Shares’ price dropped 5% in after-hours

2. Zero new product announcements. The cybertrack is expected to be launched this year (4 years after the official presentation), Tesla Semi was launched in December 2022 and that’s it.

3. On manufacturing: Tesla is moving from traditional manufacturing to modular manufacturing calling it “Unboxed process”. What does it mean? 50% fewer costs, they claim. So, if the cheapest Model 3 starts at $43,000, may we expect a car at $22,000? Let’s call it…Model 2:

   

4. Key point: with the new manufacturing technology process the company will stop using rare earth minerals (pic)

5. No guidance yet toward potential synergies for actual and future products with SpaceX and The Boring Company.

So, is Tesla a car or a tech company? The market thinks the latter:

Me? I’m not sure…yet. 

Netflix is becoming a better aggregator
With the year-end reporting season, I took a look at Netflix’s financials. (btw, they are the only large streaming movie platform that’s profitable)

So, I have reached the following conclusions:

1/ They are trying to be like a music label…by building their own catalog (+$100 bn spent in the last 10 years)

2/ Films hold a much lesser value than music. According to the accountancy standards each video loses 90% of its value in 4 years (most of the shows are not Seinfeld, ofc)

3/ International subscribers growth: 41% 10 yr CAGR

4/ Aggressive pricing policies resulted in a lower ARPU in 2022 vs 2021 for international markets

5/ Content budget for originals out of the total content budget: 46% in 2020, 55% in 2021, and 61% in 2022. LINK

So, is still room for growth for Netflix? Sure: Germany, France, Italy, Japan and many emerging markets:

On China
The annual letter for 2022 from Dan Wang is out. If you want to understand the supply chain of modern communication devices and semiconductors. This year Dan covers topics from lockdowns, protests and the drop of the “covid zero” policy. A must-read for any business professional, regarding of area of expertise. LINK

Nokia is a network company
Nowadays the company makes most of the money from (1) Network Infrastructure (5G radio access, IP routing, optical networks, and fixed networks), (2) Software (cloud-native core software and its NetGuard security software), (3) licensing, (4) technologies and (5) other.

For all aforementioned, they needed a new branding. Here it is:

I don’t know about you, but this resembles the logos of KIA…

…and Dacia:

Chinese brands go global
Backed by Pinduoduo, TEMU - an online Chinese marketplace - has been the most downloaded app in the US. The strategy is classic: conquer the US market and expand to other countries. Strategy, Growth

On smartphones
Slowly, but surely, the Chinese smartphone brands are kicking Samsung from their traditional markets (ie. Vivo, Xiaomi, RealMe). It started with China and now is moving to the region. Main strategy: glocalization. LINK

The vertical farming bubble is finally popping
Bubbles are very good because they lead to industry consolidation, market corrections, innovation & growth and..ultimately to job creation. LINK

Martec’s Law:

“Technology changes exponentially, but organizations change logarithmically.”

…and how to deal with it. LINK

Tai Lopez, a former coach/guru, raised + $200 million from investors for crypto projects and now is facing bankruptcy. Be aware of influencers! LINK

MIT Sloan School of Management faculty Loredana Padurean suggests that it's time for a change in how we try to categorize skills. After decades of categorizing qualities like problem-solving, strong communication, and good listening as “soft skills", she introduces a new term - smart skills.

The Original Nike Principles from Rob Strasser in 1977 (LINK):

Professional Partner of #onStrategy:

Did you know that over 80% of all people have pronunciation problems? You can correct that with a professional. Find out more: https://www.dictie.ro/

Artificial Intelligence

The inside story of how ChatGPT was built by the people who made it. People is still surprised that computers learned “language” so fast. LINK

The Romanian Prime Minister has its first AI counselor. More PR than utility, ofc. LINK

An article from one of my favorite visions - Marc Andreessen - “Why AI Won't Cause Unemployment”. LINK, Follow-up

Future Siri could talk to whoever is calling you and take notes. Creepy but nice to have, ofc. LINK

Microsoft brings its new AI-powered Bing to the Windows 11 taskbar. LINK

Who killed the metaverse? The AI, of course, and Mark Zuckerberg was never happier than now. LINK

LinkedIn Newsletter

Data

From Gartner: “Emerging technologies for 2022 fit into three main themes: evolving/expanding immersive experiences, accelerated artificial intelligence automation, and optimized technologist delivery”:

FT’s 1000: the seventh annual ranking of Europe’s fastest-growing companies. Hint! There are four companies from Romania and I know nothing of them. LINK

How Palantir supports the digitization of German police forces. LINK

The Pentagon is worried that the Made in China cranes sold by Chinese companies that are now all over the place in the US and worldwide are now spying for China. How? Giant cranes in ports can track the flow of goods and be controlled remotely. Crazy times! LINK

7 key automation trends for 2023 and beyond from UiPath. LINK

How quickly did internet giants grow revenue in years 1 to 5? LINK

Google - 6.663x
Amazon - 3.209x
Facebook - 712x
Yahoo - 353x
Netscape - 129x

Amazon is shutting down eight cashier-less Go stores in Seattle, NY and San Francisco. I believe due to…thefts. LINK

The number of social media users in France: 

Life

Screen time and kids
Here are the top 5 takeaways:

1/ No screens at the dinner table
2/ No screens in the bedroom
3/ No screens for babies (ie. under 18 months)
4/ Stick to smart, positive content
5/ Take regular breaks. LINK

Jerry Seinfeld shares his insights into innovation, self-criticism, and how to know when to quit. LINK

An interview on radio and podcast with Conal Byrne (LINK)

A great interview realized by McKinsey with Marc Andreessen on tech trends like artificial intelligence, crypto, Web3..and life. LINK

Lex Fridman interview with Ginni Rometty: IBM CEO on Leadership, Power, and Adversity. LINK

Outside interest

Those grey shirts that Mark Zuckerberg wears everywhere and all the time are $400 each from Brunello Cucinelli. I’ve always taught that those cost $30 and are from companies like Everlane. LINK

The Painted Hall - Old Royal Naval College, London:

There is a flux of pregnant Russian women giving birth in…Argentina. Mainly due to…influencers. LINK

What comes after logo mania? LINK

UX/UI design trends in 2023 (LINK)

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